Spatiotemporal Runoff Analysis and Associated Influencing Factors in Chitral Basin, Pakistan

Global warming has accelerated climate and weather changes, impacting the regional water cycle. This study assesses temporal trends of seasonal annual runoff in Chitral River Basin (CRB) its responses to climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) oceanic indices at large scales El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal (PDO)). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Sequential test (SQMK) Sen Slope (SS) is used evaluate magnitude. In contrast, wavelet analysis assess coherence. general, precipitation increases winter, summer autumn, whereas it decreases spring. temperature increased significantly winter spring, while a significant increase was evident. Annual NDVI increased, Water (NDWI) Snow (NDSI) decreased. Generally, inter-annual coherences with environmental factors, coherence NDVI. Monthly positive NDVI, negative correlation NDWI, NDSI. ENSO, IOD PDO show runoff. MWC findings indicate that prevailed interannual signals local Ocean, interdecadal are obvious Atlantic Ocean. results have implications for decision-makers seeking enhance resource planning, disaster prevention, mitigation, especially global intensification human activities influence hydroclimatic changes high altitudes.